Four traffic drops, checked from the outside
On October 22, 2026 we checked ten public threads from Google’s help forum, where owners asked for help after a traffic drop or a redesign, with outside data only. Six sites were too small, or outside the US, to see. Of the four we could see, two pointed at Google alone. In the other two, the update date alone would have blamed Google for something the site did.
How to read these cases
Each case is a public thread in Google’s Search Central help forum, where a site owner asked for help after a traffic drop or a redesign. None of these sites were clients. We never contacted the owners, and we don’t name the sites or quote them. Traffic figures are estimated monthly visits from US search (DataForSEO), not the owners’ analytics. Each old-URL check sampled 30 pages the Wayback Machine had archived before the drop and requested each one live.
The four cases
| Case | The drop (estimated US visits) | Google updates in the window | Old-URL check (30 sampled) | Cause | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A redesign and a core update, weeks apart | −57% year over year in April 2026 (474 to 204) | March 2026 spam and core updates | 16 return 404; 14 work | Your redesign and Google | Redesign: Recoverable. Google: needs Search Console |
| A domain move Google hasn’t caught up with | Old domain from about 1,200 a month to 60 in May 2026 and 0 from July | May 2026 core update | 30 redirect to pages on the new domain | Your redesign (a domain move) | Waits on Google |
| A core update, and nothing else changed | −55% in January 2026, −98% by March (82,834 to 1,803) | December 2025 core update | 29 work; 1 redirects to the homepage | Waits on Google | |
| A core update, then three spam updates | −44% in April 2026 (14,849 to 8,374), 58 by October | March 2026 core; June, August and September 2026 spam updates | 30 unchanged | Waits on Google, if the site meets Google’s spam policies |
A redesign and a core update, weeks apart
A heating company
Your redesign
Google: March 2026 core update. No grade from outside; it needs Search Console.
A heating company’s estimated US search visits fell 57% year over year in April 2026 (474 to 204), about two months after a redesign that left 16 of 30 sampled old URLs returning a 404 error, and just as Google’s March 2026 core update finished: two suspects, and the redesign’s part is Recoverable.
Checked . A public case from Google’s help forum, not a client.
- RedesignEarly February 2026, owner’s account
- March 2026 core updateMar 27 – Apr 8, 2026
| Month | Estimated monthly visits from US search |
|---|---|
| January 2025 | 436 |
| February 2025 | 443 |
| March 2025 | 418 |
| April 2025 | 474 |
| May 2025 | 351 |
| June 2025 | 335 |
| July 2025 | 333 |
| August 2025 | 458 |
| September 2025 | 486 |
| October 2025 | 386 |
| November 2025 | 229 |
| December 2025 | 223 |
| January 2026 | 348 |
| February 2026 | 448 |
| March 2026 | 441 |
| April 2026 | 204 |
| May 2026 | 200 |
| June 2026 | 209 |
| July 2026 | 193 |
| August 2026 | 348 |
| September 2026 | 356 |
| October 2026 | 332 |
The 2025 bars show the business’s normal seasonal pattern.
What happened
The owner asked in Google’s help forum how the redesign would affect SEO, and dates it to early February 2026. Estimated visits held through February and March (448 and 441, a little above the same months of 2025). In April they fell to 204. Google’s March 2026 spam update rolled out from March 24 to March 25, and its core update from March 27 to April 8.
Seasonality, ruled out
Heating is seasonal, so we compared each month with the same month a year earlier. April 2026 was 57% below April 2025. May to July ran 38–43% below the year before. That’s far outside the dip the same months show in 2025, so seasonality doesn’t explain it.
Google updates in the window
- March 2026 spam update, –. Calendar entry · Google’s notice
- March 2026 core update, – . Calendar entry · Google’s notice
Old-URL check
Of 30 pages archived before the redesign, 16 now return a 404 error and 14 resolve to working pages. None redirect to the homepage.
| What the old URL does now | URLs |
|---|---|
| Working page | 14 |
| 404Not found | 16 |
| Redirects to the homepage | 0 |
| Redirects to another domain | 0 |
| Sampled | 30 |
What the owner could do
Redirect the 16 broken URLs, and any others like them, to their matching new pages. That part is Recoverable, and it’s the first move whatever Google did. Google’s part gets no grade from outside: only Search Console can show whether the lost clicks sat on the broken URLs or spread across pages that didn’t change, and that split is what an Autopsy makes.
Since then
From August, estimated visits climbed back. By October they were 14% below October 2025. We can’t see from outside what changed.
What we couldn’t see from outside
- Whether the lost clicks sit on the 16 broken URLs or spread across pages that didn’t change.
- How many old URLs are broken across the whole site. We sampled 30.
- Whether the new pages carry the content the old ones ranked for.
- Why visits recovered from August.
A domain move Google hasn’t caught up with
A company that moved to a new domain
Your redesign (a domain move)
After a move to a new domain around late March 2026, the old domain’s estimated US search visits fell from about 1,200 a month to 60 in May and 0 from July, even though all 30 sampled old URLs redirect to pages on the new domain, none to its homepage: the cause is the move, and the odds are Waits on Google.
Checked . A public case from Google’s help forum, not a client.
- Domain moveLate March 2026, owner’s account
- May 2026 core updateMay 21 – Jun 2, 2026
| Month | Estimated monthly visits from US search: Old domain | Estimated monthly visits from US search: New domain |
|---|---|---|
| November 2025 | 1,195 | 0 |
| December 2025 | 1,226 | 0 |
| January 2026 | 1,218 | 0 |
| February 2026 | 1,217 | 0 |
| March 2026 | 1,203 | 0 |
| April 2026 | 1,205 | 0 |
| May 2026 | 60 | 0 |
| June 2026 | 5 | 2 |
| July 2026 | 0 | 2 |
| August 2026 | 0 | 33 |
| September 2026 | 0 | 33 |
| October 2026 | 0 | 17 |
What happened
The owner’s thread dates the move to about six months before it was posted, which puts it around late March 2026. By the owner’s account, Bing traffic came back within weeks; Google traffic is still far below where it was.
From the outside, the old domain held between 1,195 and 1,226 estimated visits a month from November 2025 to April 2026, fell to 60 in May and 5 in June, and has shown 0 since July. The new domain shows almost nothing in the same data: 2 visits in June and in July, 33 in August and in September, and 17 in October. The owner reports Google traffic far below where it was, which is more than these estimates show, so read the new-domain figures as a floor.
Google updates in the window
- May 2026 core update, – . Calendar entry · Google’s notice
It may account for part of the loss. Outside data can’t separate it from the move.
Old-URL check
All 30 sampled old URLs redirect to pages on the new domain. None land on its homepage, and none are broken.
| What the old URL does now | URLs |
|---|---|
| Working page | 0 |
| 404Not found | 0 |
| Redirects to the homepage | 0 |
| Redirects to the new domain | 30 |
| Sampled | 30 |
What the owner could do
Not much more is visible on the site side: all 30 sampled old URLs redirect to pages on the new domain, and by the owner’s account Bing has followed them. What may be left is Google moving the old domain’s standing to the new one, which takes time: across 892 domain migrations, organic traffic took 523 days on average to return to its old level, and 17% hadn’t after 1,000 days (Dan Taylor, founder of 10 Spurs, Search Engine Journal, January 8, 2025). Odds: Waits on Google.
What we couldn’t see from outside
- Whether each old URL lands on its matching new page, or on a different page within the new domain.
- Whether the move was registered in Search Console.
- Which pages and queries lost the clicks on Google.
- How much of the remaining loss belongs to the May core update.
A core update, and nothing else changed
A medical practice
A medical practice’s estimated US search visits fell 55% in January 2026 and 98% by March, from 82,834 in December 2025 to 1,803, starting with Google’s December 2025 core update, and we found no broken old URLs and no domain change: the cause is Google, and the odds are Waits on Google.
Checked . A public case from Google’s help forum, not a client.
- December 2025 core updateDec 11–29, 2025
| Month | Estimated monthly visits from US search |
|---|---|
| September 2025 | 62,343 |
| October 2025 | 65,891 |
| November 2025 | 71,202 |
| December 2025 | 82,834 |
| January 2026 | 36,885 |
| February 2026 | 7,262 |
| March 2026 | 1,803 |
| April 2026 | 4,689 |
| May 2026 | 4,683 |
| June 2026 | 6,386 |
| July 2026 | 6,120 |
| August 2026 | 5,432 |
| September 2026 | 4,936 |
| October 2026 | 4,779 |
What happened
Estimated visits rose from 62,343 in September 2025 to 82,834 in December. Google’s December 2025 core update rolled out from December 11 to December 29. In January, visits fell to 36,885, then to 7,262 in February and 1,803 in March. From April to October they stayed between 4,683 and 6,386.
Google updates in the window
- December 2025 core update, –. Calendar entry · Google’s notice
Old-URL check
Of 30 sampled old URLs, 29 resolve to working pages and one redirects to the homepage. None are broken. We found no domain change.
| What the old URL does now | URLs |
|---|---|
| Working page | 29 |
| 404Not found | 0 |
| Redirects to the homepage | 1 |
| Redirects to another domain | 0 |
| Sampled | 30 |
What the owner could do
With nothing broken on the site side, there’s no redirect fix to make. Whether traffic returns depends on Google reassessing the site, and Google’s own guidance says that can mean waiting until a later core update. Odds: Waits on Google.
We did not assess the site’s content, and nothing here is a judgment about its medical information.
What we couldn’t see from outside
- Which pages and queries lost the clicks.
- Whether specific pages, rather than the whole site, took the loss.
- Any platform change our outside checks can’t detect.
A core update, then three spam updates
A content site
A content site’s estimated US search visits fell 44% in April 2026 (14,849 to 8,374) as Google’s March 2026 core update finished, then to 58 by October across the June, August and September 2026 spam updates, with all 30 sampled old URLs unchanged: the cause is Google, and the odds are Waits on Google, but only if the site meets Google’s spam policies.
Checked . A public case from Google’s help forum, not a client.
- March 2026 spam updateMar 24–25, 2026
- March 2026 core updateMar 27 – Apr 8, 2026
- June 2026 spam updateJun 24–26, 2026
- August 2026 spam updateAug 18–21, 2026
- September 2026 spam updateSep 24 – Oct 8, 2026
| Month | Estimated monthly visits from US search |
|---|---|
| September 2025 | 1,692 |
| October 2025 | 3,823 |
| November 2025 | 8,100 |
| December 2025 | 8,662 |
| January 2026 | 10,794 |
| February 2026 | 14,712 |
| March 2026 | 14,849 |
| April 2026 | 8,374 |
| May 2026 | 8,582 |
| June 2026 | 6,079 |
| July 2026 | 5,885 |
| August 2026 | 1,852 |
| September 2026 | 288 |
| October 2026 | 58 |
What happened
Estimated visits had grown from 1,692 in September 2025 to 14,849 in March 2026. Google’s March 2026 core update rolled out from March 27 to April 8, and in April visits fell to 8,374. They fell to 6,079 in June, after the June 2026 spam update, to 1,852 in August, after the August 2026 spam update, then to 288 in September and 58 in October as the September 2026 spam update rolled out. The owner attributes the drop to a spam update.
Google updates in the window
- March 2026 spam update, –. Calendar entry · Google’s notice
- March 2026 core update, – . Calendar entry · Google’s notice
- June 2026 spam update, –. Calendar entry · Google’s notice
- August 2026 spam update, –. Calendar entry · Google’s notice
- September 2026 spam update, – . Calendar entry · Google’s notice
The March 2026 spam update landed just before the core update. Google’s notices are linked from each calendar entry.
Old-URL check
All 30 sampled old URLs are unchanged and resolve to working pages. We found no broken or redirected old URLs.
| What the old URL does now | URLs |
|---|---|
| Working page | 30 |
| 404Not found | 0 |
| Redirects to the homepage | 0 |
| Redirects to another domain | 0 |
| Sampled | 30 |
What the owner could do
A spam update acts on sites that break Google’s spam policies. If the site meets those policies, the grade is Waits on Google. If it doesn’t, no grade means much until it does. We did not assess the site’s content.
What we couldn’t see from outside
- Whether the site meets Google’s spam policies.
- Whether a manual action was applied. That shows only in Search Console.
- Which pages and queries lost the clicks.
How did we check these cases?
With outside data only: estimated monthly visits from US search (DataForSEO), Google’s Search Status Dashboard for update dates, the Wayback Machine for old URLs, and a live request to each sampled URL. The steps are the same ones an Autopsy starts with. The full method.
What can’t these cases tell you?
Four cases is an anecdote, not a rate. People who post in Google’s help forum tend to have confusing cases, so these probably overstate how often causes overlap. And without Search Console data, every verdict here is a leading suspect, not a confirmed cause.