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Death to SEO

Case files

Four traffic drops, checked from the outside

On October 22, 2026 we checked ten public threads from Google’s help forum, where owners asked for help after a traffic drop or a redesign, with outside data only. Six sites were too small, or outside the US, to see. Of the four we could see, two pointed at Google alone. In the other two, the update date alone would have blamed Google for something the site did.

01Reading guide

How to read these cases

Each case is a public thread in Google’s Search Central help forum, where a site owner asked for help after a traffic drop or a redesign. None of these sites were clients. We never contacted the owners, and we don’t name the sites or quote them. Traffic figures are estimated monthly visits from US search (DataForSEO), not the owners’ analytics. Each old-URL check sampled 30 pages the Wayback Machine had archived before the drop and requested each one live.

02Summary

The four cases

Exhibit AThe four cases at a glance
CaseThe drop (estimated US visits)Google updates in the windowOld-URL check (30 sampled)CauseOdds
A redesign and a core update, weeks apart−57% year over year in April 2026 (474 to 204)March 2026 spam and core updates16 return 404; 14 workYour redesign and GoogleRedesign: Recoverable. Google: needs Search Console
A domain move Google hasn’t caught up withOld domain from about 1,200 a month to 60 in May 2026 and 0 from JulyMay 2026 core update30 redirect to pages on the new domainYour redesign (a domain move)Waits on Google
A core update, and nothing else changed−55% in January 2026, −98% by March (82,834 to 1,803)December 2025 core update29 work; 1 redirects to the homepageGoogleWaits on Google
A core update, then three spam updates−44% in April 2026 (14,849 to 8,374), 58 by OctoberMarch 2026 core; June, August and September 2026 spam updates30 unchangedGoogleWaits on Google, if the site meets Google’s spam policies
Source: DataForSEO estimated monthly visits from US search, Google Search Status Dashboard, Wayback Machine. Checked 2026-10-22.

Case 001

A redesign and a core update, weeks apart

Case
001
Opened
October 22, 2026
Suspects
2
Verdict
Your redesign and Google

A heating company

Public case · Google Search Central help forum

Verdict:Odds: Recoverable

Your redesign

Also presentGoogle: March 2026 core update. No grade from outside; it needs Search Console.

A heating company’s estimated US search visits fell 57% year over year in April 2026 (474 to 204), about two months after a redesign that left 16 of 30 sampled old URLs returning a 404 error, and just as Google’s March 2026 core update finished: two suspects, and the redesign’s part is Recoverable.

Checked . A public case from Google’s help forum, not a client.

Exhibit BEstimated monthly visits from US search, January 2025 to October 2026
Estimated monthly visits from US search, January 2025 to October 2026Estimated monthly visits from US search to a heating company’s site. They held at 448 in February 2026 and 441 in March, fell to 204 in April, stayed near 200 until July and climbed to 348 in August. The 2025 bars show the normal seasonal pattern, 474 in April 2025. Markers: the redesign in early February and the March 2026 core update.
  1. Site changeRedesignEarly February 2026, owner’s account
  2. GoogleMarch 2026 core updateMar 27 – Apr 8, 2026

Source: DataForSEO historical traffic estimates (US search), pulled 2026-10-22. Update dates: Google Search Status Dashboard.

Estimated monthly visits from US search, January 2025 to October 2026
MonthEstimated monthly visits from US search
January 2025436
February 2025443
March 2025418
April 2025474
May 2025351
June 2025335
July 2025333
August 2025458
September 2025486
October 2025386
November 2025229
December 2025223
January 2026348
February 2026448
March 2026441
April 2026204
May 2026200
June 2026209
July 2026193
August 2026348
September 2026356
October 2026332

The 2025 bars show the business’s normal seasonal pattern.

What happened

The owner asked in Google’s help forum how the redesign would affect SEO, and dates it to early February 2026. Estimated visits held through February and March (448 and 441, a little above the same months of 2025). In April they fell to 204. Google’s March 2026 spam update rolled out from March 24 to March 25, and its core update from March 27 to April 8.

Seasonality, ruled out

Heating is seasonal, so we compared each month with the same month a year earlier. April 2026 was 57% below April 2025. May to July ran 38–43% below the year before. That’s far outside the dip the same months show in 2025, so seasonality doesn’t explain it.

Google updates in the window

Old-URL check

Of 30 pages archived before the redesign, 16 now return a 404 error and 14 resolve to working pages. None redirect to the homepage.

Exhibit COld-URL check: 30 sampled pages
What the old URL does nowURLs
Working page14
404Not found16
Redirects to the homepage0
Redirects to another domain0
Sampled30
Pages the Wayback Machine had archived before the change, each requested live on . Counts only.

What the owner could do

Redirect the 16 broken URLs, and any others like them, to their matching new pages. That part is Recoverable, and it’s the first move whatever Google did. Google’s part gets no grade from outside: only Search Console can show whether the lost clicks sat on the broken URLs or spread across pages that didn’t change, and that split is what an Autopsy makes.

Since then

From August, estimated visits climbed back. By October they were 14% below October 2025. We can’t see from outside what changed.

What we couldn’t see from outside

  • Whether the lost clicks sit on the 16 broken URLs or spread across pages that didn’t change.
  • How many old URLs are broken across the whole site. We sampled 30.
  • Whether the new pages carry the content the old ones ranked for.
  • Why visits recovered from August.

Case 002

A domain move Google hasn’t caught up with

Case
002
Opened
October 22, 2026
Suspects
1
Verdict
Your redesign (a domain move)

A company that moved to a new domain

Public case · Google Search Central help forum

Verdict:Odds: Waits on Google

Your redesign (a domain move)

After a move to a new domain around late March 2026, the old domain’s estimated US search visits fell from about 1,200 a month to 60 in May and 0 from July, even though all 30 sampled old URLs redirect to pages on the new domain, none to its homepage: the cause is the move, and the odds are Waits on Google.

Checked . A public case from Google’s help forum, not a client.

Exhibit DEstimated monthly visits from US search to the old domain and the new domain, November 2025 to October 2026
Estimated monthly visits from US search to the old domain and the new domain, November 2025 to October 2026Estimated monthly visits from US search to the old domain stayed between 1,195 and 1,226 from November 2025 to April 2026, then fell to 60 in May, 5 in June and 0 from July. The new domain’s outlined bars stay near zero: 2 in June and July, 33 in August and September, 17 in October. Markers: the domain move in late March and the May 2026 core update.
  • Old domain
  • New domain
  1. Site changeDomain moveLate March 2026, owner’s account
  2. GoogleMay 2026 core updateMay 21 – Jun 2, 2026

Source: DataForSEO historical traffic estimates (US search), pulled 2026-10-22. Update dates: Google Search Status Dashboard.

Estimated monthly visits from US search to the old domain and the new domain, November 2025 to October 2026
MonthEstimated monthly visits from US search: Old domainEstimated monthly visits from US search: New domain
November 20251,1950
December 20251,2260
January 20261,2180
February 20261,2170
March 20261,2030
April 20261,2050
May 2026600
June 202652
July 202602
August 2026033
September 2026033
October 2026017

What happened

The owner’s thread dates the move to about six months before it was posted, which puts it around late March 2026. By the owner’s account, Bing traffic came back within weeks; Google traffic is still far below where it was.

From the outside, the old domain held between 1,195 and 1,226 estimated visits a month from November 2025 to April 2026, fell to 60 in May and 5 in June, and has shown 0 since July. The new domain shows almost nothing in the same data: 2 visits in June and in July, 33 in August and in September, and 17 in October. The owner reports Google traffic far below where it was, which is more than these estimates show, so read the new-domain figures as a floor.

Google updates in the window

It may account for part of the loss. Outside data can’t separate it from the move.

Old-URL check

All 30 sampled old URLs redirect to pages on the new domain. None land on its homepage, and none are broken.

Exhibit EOld-URL check: 30 sampled pages
What the old URL does nowURLs
Working page0
404Not found0
Redirects to the homepage0
Redirects to the new domain30
Sampled30
Pages the Wayback Machine had archived before the change, each requested live on . Counts only.

What the owner could do

Not much more is visible on the site side: all 30 sampled old URLs redirect to pages on the new domain, and by the owner’s account Bing has followed them. What may be left is Google moving the old domain’s standing to the new one, which takes time: across 892 domain migrations, organic traffic took 523 days on average to return to its old level, and 17% hadn’t after 1,000 days (Dan Taylor, founder of 10 Spurs, Search Engine Journal, January 8, 2025). Odds: Waits on Google.

What we couldn’t see from outside

  • Whether each old URL lands on its matching new page, or on a different page within the new domain.
  • Whether the move was registered in Search Console.
  • Which pages and queries lost the clicks on Google.
  • How much of the remaining loss belongs to the May core update.

Case 003

A core update, and nothing else changed

Case
003
Opened
October 22, 2026
Suspects
1
Verdict
Google

A medical practice

Public case · Google Search Central help forum

Verdict:Odds: Waits on Google

Google

A medical practice’s estimated US search visits fell 55% in January 2026 and 98% by March, from 82,834 in December 2025 to 1,803, starting with Google’s December 2025 core update, and we found no broken old URLs and no domain change: the cause is Google, and the odds are Waits on Google.

Checked . A public case from Google’s help forum, not a client.

Exhibit FEstimated monthly visits from US search, September 2025 to October 2026
Estimated monthly visits from US search, September 2025 to October 2026Estimated monthly visits from US search rose from 62,343 in September 2025 to 82,834 in December, then fell to 36,885 in January 2026, 7,262 in February and 1,803 in March, and stayed between 4,683 and 6,386 from April to October. Marker: the December 2025 core update.
  1. GoogleDecember 2025 core updateDec 11–29, 2025

Source: DataForSEO historical traffic estimates (US search), pulled 2026-10-22. Update dates: Google Search Status Dashboard.

Estimated monthly visits from US search, September 2025 to October 2026
MonthEstimated monthly visits from US search
September 202562,343
October 202565,891
November 202571,202
December 202582,834
January 202636,885
February 20267,262
March 20261,803
April 20264,689
May 20264,683
June 20266,386
July 20266,120
August 20265,432
September 20264,936
October 20264,779

What happened

Estimated visits rose from 62,343 in September 2025 to 82,834 in December. Google’s December 2025 core update rolled out from December 11 to December 29. In January, visits fell to 36,885, then to 7,262 in February and 1,803 in March. From April to October they stayed between 4,683 and 6,386.

Google updates in the window

Old-URL check

Of 30 sampled old URLs, 29 resolve to working pages and one redirects to the homepage. None are broken. We found no domain change.

Exhibit GOld-URL check: 30 sampled pages
What the old URL does nowURLs
Working page29
404Not found0
Redirects to the homepage1
Redirects to another domain0
Sampled30
Pages the Wayback Machine had archived before the change, each requested live on . Counts only.

What the owner could do

With nothing broken on the site side, there’s no redirect fix to make. Whether traffic returns depends on Google reassessing the site, and Google’s own guidance says that can mean waiting until a later core update. Odds: Waits on Google.

We did not assess the site’s content, and nothing here is a judgment about its medical information.

What we couldn’t see from outside

  • Which pages and queries lost the clicks.
  • Whether specific pages, rather than the whole site, took the loss.
  • Any platform change our outside checks can’t detect.

Case 004

A core update, then three spam updates

Case
004
Opened
October 22, 2026
Suspects
1
Verdict
Google

A content site

Public case · Google Search Central help forum

Verdict:Odds: Waits on Google

Google

A content site’s estimated US search visits fell 44% in April 2026 (14,849 to 8,374) as Google’s March 2026 core update finished, then to 58 by October across the June, August and September 2026 spam updates, with all 30 sampled old URLs unchanged: the cause is Google, and the odds are Waits on Google, but only if the site meets Google’s spam policies.

Checked . A public case from Google’s help forum, not a client.

Exhibit HEstimated monthly visits from US search, September 2025 to October 2026
Estimated monthly visits from US search, September 2025 to October 2026Estimated monthly visits from US search rose from 1,692 in September 2025 to 14,849 in March 2026, then fell to 8,374 in April, 6,079 in June, 1,852 in August, 288 in September and 58 in October. Markers: the March 2026 spam and core updates, and the June, August and September 2026 spam updates.
  1. GoogleMarch 2026 spam updateMar 24–25, 2026
  2. GoogleMarch 2026 core updateMar 27 – Apr 8, 2026
  3. GoogleJune 2026 spam updateJun 24–26, 2026
  4. GoogleAugust 2026 spam updateAug 18–21, 2026
  5. GoogleSeptember 2026 spam updateSep 24 – Oct 8, 2026

Source: DataForSEO historical traffic estimates (US search), pulled 2026-10-22. Update dates: Google Search Status Dashboard.

Estimated monthly visits from US search, September 2025 to October 2026
MonthEstimated monthly visits from US search
September 20251,692
October 20253,823
November 20258,100
December 20258,662
January 202610,794
February 202614,712
March 202614,849
April 20268,374
May 20268,582
June 20266,079
July 20265,885
August 20261,852
September 2026288
October 202658

What happened

Estimated visits had grown from 1,692 in September 2025 to 14,849 in March 2026. Google’s March 2026 core update rolled out from March 27 to April 8, and in April visits fell to 8,374. They fell to 6,079 in June, after the June 2026 spam update, to 1,852 in August, after the August 2026 spam update, then to 288 in September and 58 in October as the September 2026 spam update rolled out. The owner attributes the drop to a spam update.

Google updates in the window

The March 2026 spam update landed just before the core update. Google’s notices are linked from each calendar entry.

Old-URL check

All 30 sampled old URLs are unchanged and resolve to working pages. We found no broken or redirected old URLs.

Exhibit IOld-URL check: 30 sampled pages
What the old URL does nowURLs
Working page30
404Not found0
Redirects to the homepage0
Redirects to another domain0
Sampled30
Pages the Wayback Machine had archived before the change, each requested live on . Counts only.

What the owner could do

A spam update acts on sites that break Google’s spam policies. If the site meets those policies, the grade is Waits on Google. If it doesn’t, no grade means much until it does. We did not assess the site’s content.

What we couldn’t see from outside

  • Whether the site meets Google’s spam policies.
  • Whether a manual action was applied. That shows only in Search Console.
  • Which pages and queries lost the clicks.

03Method

How did we check these cases?

With outside data only: estimated monthly visits from US search (DataForSEO), Google’s Search Status Dashboard for update dates, the Wayback Machine for old URLs, and a live request to each sampled URL. The steps are the same ones an Autopsy starts with. The full method.

04Limits

What can’t these cases tell you?

Four cases is an anecdote, not a rate. People who post in Google’s help forum tend to have confusing cases, so these probably overstate how often causes overlap. And without Search Console data, every verdict here is a leading suspect, not a confirmed cause.